YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.3% annual gain in October, up from 3.2% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 1.7%, up from 1.5% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 2.2% year-over-year gain, up from 2.1% in the previous month.
Phoenix, Tampa and Charlotte reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In October, Phoenix led the way with a 5.8% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa with a 4.9% increase and Charlotte with a 4.8% increase. Twelve of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending October 2019 versus the year ending September 2019.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
The National Index, 10-City and 20-City Composites all posted a month-over-month increase of 0.1% before seasonal adjustment in October. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.5% month-over-month increase in October while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted a 0.4% increase. In October, eight of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment while 18 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
ANALYSIS
"October's U.S. housing data continue to be reassuring," says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "With October's 3.3% increase in the national composite index, home prices are currently more than 15% above the pre-financial crisis peak reached July 2006. October's results were broad-based, as both our 10- and 20-city composites rose. Of the 20 cities in the composite, only San Francisco saw a year-over-year price decline in October.
"At a regional level, Phoenix retains the top spot for the fifth consecutive month with October's 5.8% year-over-year gain. The Southeast region was also strong, as Tampa, Charlotte, and Atlanta all rose by more than 4.0%.
"As was the case last month, after a long period of decelerating price increases, the national, 10-city, and 20-city composites all rose at a modestly faster rate in October compared to September. This stability was broad-based, reflecting data in 12 of 20 cities. It is, of course, still too soon to say whether this marks an end to the deceleration or is merely a pause in the longer-term trend."
SUPPORTING DATA
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
|
| 2006 Peak | 2012 Trough | Current | |||||
Index |
Level |
Date |
Level |
Date | From Peak
|
Level | From Trough
| From Peak
|
National | 184.61 | Jul-06 | 134.00 | Feb-12 | -27.4% | 212.43 | 58.5% | 15.1% |
20-City | 206.52 | Jul-06 | 134.07 | Mar-12 | -35.1% | 218.43 | 62.9% | 5.8% |
10-City | 226.29 | Jun-06 | 146.45 | Mar-12 | -35.3% | 231.16 | 57.8% | 2.2% |
Table 2 below summarizes the results for October 2019. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.
|
| October 2019 | October/September | September/August | 1-Year |
| Metropolitan Area | Level | Change (%) | Change (%) | Change (%) |
| Atlanta | 154.59 | 0.4% | 0.2% | 4.2% |
| Boston | 223.73 | 0.0% | -0.5% | 3.4% |
| Charlotte | 166.50 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 4.8% |
| Chicago | 145.10 | -0.4% | -0.8% | 0.5% |
| Cleveland | 127.80 | -0.5% | 0.5% | 3.3% |
| Dallas | 192.90 | -0.1% | 0.2% | 2.9% |
| Denver | 223.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.3% |
| Detroit | 128.45 | -0.5% | -0.1% | 3.1% |
| Las Vegas | 194.32 | -0.2% | 0.2% | 2.3% |
| Los Angeles | 288.35 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 2.0% |
| Miami | 246.36 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 3.3% |
| Minneapolis | 180.44 | -0.2% | 0.1% | 4.2% |
| New York | 202.67 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| Phoenix | 197.65 | 0.5% | 0.4% | 5.8% |
| Portland | 240.04 | -0.5% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
| San Diego | 262.56 | -0.2% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
| San Francisco | 266.05 | -0.4% | -0.6% | -0.4% |
| Seattle | 253.79 | -0.3% | -0.3% | 2.5% |
| Tampa | 223.53 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 4.9% |
| Washington | 234.63 | 0.3% | -0.2% | 3.0% |
| Composite-10 | 231.16 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 1.7% |
| Composite-20 | 218.43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 2.2% |
| U.S. National | 212.43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 3.3% |
| Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic | ||||
| Data through October 2019 | ||||
