YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.9% annual gain in January, up from 3.7% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.6%, up from 2.3% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 3.1% year-over-year gain, up from 2.8% in the previous month.
Phoenix, Seattle and Tampa reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In January, Phoenix led the way with a 6.9% year-over-year price increase, followed by 5.1% increases in Seattle and Tampa. Fourteen of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending January 2020 versus the year ending December 2019.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
The National Index and 20-City Composite were flat month-over-month, while the 10-City Composite posted a 0.1% decrease before seasonal adjustment in January. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.5%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted 0.3% increases. In January, 10 of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment while 18 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
ANALYSIS
"The trend of stable growth established in 2019 continued into the first month of the new year," says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "The National Composite Index rose by 3.9% in January 2020, and the 10- and 20-City Composites also advanced (by 2.6% and 3.1% respectively). Results for the month were broad-based, with gains in every city in our 20-City Composite; 14 of the 20 cities saw accelerating prices. As has been the case since mid-2019, after a long period of decelerating price increases, the National, 10-City, and 20-City Composites all rose at a faster rate in January than they had done in December.
"At a regional level, Phoenix retains the top spot for the eighth consecutive month, with a gain of 6.9% for January. Seattle, Tampa, and San Diego all rose by 5.1%. Housing prices were particularly strong in the West and South, and comparatively weak in the Midwest and Northeast.
"It is important to bear in mind that today's report covers real estate transactions closed during the month of January. The COVID-19 pandemic did not begin to take hold in the U.S. until late February, and thus whatever impact it will have on housing prices is not reflected in today's data."
SUPPORTING DATA
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
|
| 2006 Peak | 2012 Trough | Current | |||||
Index |
Level |
Date |
Level |
Date | From Peak
|
Level | From Trough
| From Peak
|
National | 184.61 | Jul-06 | 134.00 | Feb-12 | -27.4% | 212.43 | 58.5% | 15.1% |
20-City | 206.52 | Jul-06 | 134.07 | Mar-12 | -35.1% | 218.62 | 63.1% | 5.9% |
10-City | 226.29 | Jun-06 | 146.45 | Mar-12 | -35.3% | 231.27 | 57.9% | 2.2% |
Table 2 below summarizes the results for January 2020. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.
|
| January 2020 | January/December | December/November | 1-Year | ||||
| Metropolitan Area | Level | Change (%) | Change (%) | Change (%) | ||||
| Atlanta | 155.03 | 0.1% | -0.1% | 4.5% | ||||
| Boston | 224.03 | -0.3% | 0.0% | 4.5% | ||||
| Charlotte | 167.26 | -0.1% | 0.0% | 4.9% | ||||
| Chicago | 142.36 | -0.9% | -0.2% | 0.6% | ||||
| Cleveland | 126.34 | -0.3% | -0.7% | 3.9% | ||||
| Dallas | 193.05 | 0.1% | -0.2% | 2.6% | ||||
| Denver | 223.69 | 0.3% | -0.1% | 3.8% | ||||
| Detroit | 127.37 | -0.1% | -0.2% | 3.5% | ||||
| Las Vegas | 195.84 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 3.2% | ||||
| Los Angeles | 289.80 | 0.3% | -0.1% | 3.4% | ||||
| Miami | 247.37 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 2.9% | ||||
| Minneapolis | 177.35 | -0.7% | -0.6% | 3.4% | ||||
| New York | 202.70 | -0.3% | 0.1% | 0.8% | ||||
| Phoenix | 200.01 | 0.2% | 0.6% | 6.9% | ||||
| Portland | 240.95 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 4.1% | ||||
| San Diego | 264.04 | 0.3% | 0.0% | 5.1% | ||||
| San Francisco | 265.46 | -0.5% | 0.1% | 3.0% | ||||
| Seattle | 256.09 | 0.7% | 0.2% | 5.1% | ||||
| Tampa | 225.29 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 5.1% | ||||
| Washington | 234.86 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 3.5% | ||||
| Composite-10 | 231.27 | -0.1% | 0.0% | 2.6% | ||||
| Composite-20 | 218.62 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.1% | ||||
| U.S. National | 212.43 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.9% | ||||
| Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic |
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| Data through January 2020 |
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