YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.4% annual gain in May, remaining the same as in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.1%, down from 6.4% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 6.5% year-over-year gain, down from 6.7% in the previous month.
Seattle, Las Vegas, and San Francisco continued to report the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In May, Seattle led the way with a 13.6% year-over-year price increase, followed by Las Vegas with a 12.6% increase and San Francisco with a 10.9% increase. Seven of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending May 2018 versus the year ending April 2018.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 1.1% in May. The 10-City and 20-City Composites reported increases of 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.4% month-over-month increase in May. The 10-City and 20-City Composites posted 0.1% and 0.2% month-over-month increases, respectively. Nineteen of 20 cities reported increases in May before seasonal adjustment, while 16 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
ANALYSIS
"Home prices continue to rack up gains two to three times greater than the inflation rate," says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director & Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "The year-over-year increases in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Index have topped 5% every month since August 2016. Unlike the boom-bust period surrounding the financial crisis, price gains are consistent across the 20 cities tracked in the release; currently, the range of the largest to smallest price change is 10 percentage points compared to a 20 percentage point range since 2001, and a 25 percentage point range between 2006 and 2009. Not only are prices rising consistently, they are doing so across the country.
"Continuing price increases appear to be affecting other housing statistics. Sales of existing single family homes – the market covered by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices – peaked last November and have declined for three months in a row. The number of pending home sales is drifting lower as is the number of existing homes for sale. Sales of new homes are also down and housing starts are flattening. Affordability – a measure based on income, mortgage rates and home prices – has gotten consistently worse over the last 18 months. All these indicators suggest that the combination of rising home prices and rising mortgage rates are beginning to affect the housing market."
SUPPORTING DATA
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
|
|
2006 Peak |
2012 Trough |
Current | |||||
|
Index |
Level |
Date |
Level |
Date |
From Peak (%) |
Level |
From Trough (%) |
From Peak (%) |
|
National |
184.62 |
Jul-06 |
134.00 |
Feb-12 |
-27.4% |
202.95 |
51.5% |
9.9% |
|
20-City |
206.52 |
Jul-06 |
134.07 |
Mar-12 |
-35.1% |
211.94 |
58.1% |
2.6% |
|
10-City |
226.29 |
Jun-06 |
146.45 |
Mar-12 |
-35.3% |
225.31 |
53.8% |
-0.4% |
Table 2 below summarizes the results for May 2018. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.
|
|
May 2018 |
May/April |
April/March |
1-Year |
|
Metropolitan Area |
Level |
Change (%) |
Change (%) |
Change (%) |
|
Atlanta |
145.82 |
1.0% |
0.8% |
5.6% |
|
Boston |
214.60 |
0.8% |
1.9% |
7.0% |
|
Charlotte |
157.06 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
6.0% |
|
Chicago |
143.59 |
1.3% |
1.2% |
3.3% |
|
Cleveland |
120.74 |
1.4% |
0.9% |
5.0% |
|
Dallas |
186.39 |
0.6% |
0.9% |
5.6% |
|
Denver |
215.15 |
0.8% |
1.2% |
8.5% |
|
Detroit |
122.60 |
0.8% |
1.4% |
7.1% |
|
Las Vegas |
181.02 |
1.3% |
1.6% |
12.6% |
|
Los Angeles |
281.70 |
0.5% |
0.9% |
7.6% |
|
Miami |
235.12 |
0.8% |
0.5% |
5.0% |
|
Minneapolis |
171.04 |
1.1% |
1.8% |
6.4% |
|
New York |
196.80 |
0.0% |
-0.1% |
4.2% |
|
Phoenix |
180.88 |
1.1% |
0.8% |
7.3% |
|
Portland |
232.71 |
1.2% |
1.1% |
5.9% |
|
San Diego |
257.46 |
0.6% |
0.9% |
7.3% |
|
San Francisco |
267.08 |
1.1% |
1.0% |
10.9% |
|
Seattle |
257.19 |
2.2% |
2.7% |
13.6% |
|
Tampa |
207.87 |
0.5% |
0.4% |
6.5% |
|
Washington |
227.49 |
0.6% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
|
Composite-10 |
225.31 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
6.1% |
|
Composite-20 |
211.94 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
6.5% |
|
U.S. National |
202.95 |
1.1% |
1.0% |
6.4% |
|
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic |
|
| ||
|
Data through May 2018 |
|
|
| |
Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.
|
|
May/April Change (%) |
April/March Change (%) | ||
|
Metropolitan Area |
NSA |
SA |
NSA |
SA |
|
Atlanta |
1.0% |
0.2% |
0.8% |
0.0% |
|
Boston |
0.8% |
0.2% |
1.9% |
1.0% |
|
Charlotte |
0.8% |
0.3% |
0.8% |
0.2% |
|
Chicago |
1.3% |
0.1% |
1.2% |
0.1% |
|
Cleveland |
1.4% |
0.2% |
0.9% |
0.3% |
|
Dallas |
0.6% |
0.2% |
0.9% |
0.2% |
|
Denver |
0.8% |
0.4% |
1.2% |
0.0% |
|
Detroit |
0.8% |
-0.2% |
1.4% |
0.7% |
|
Las Vegas |
1.3% |
0.6% |
1.6% |
1.1% |
|
Los Angeles |
0.5% |
0.0% |
0.9% |
0.4% |
|
Miami |
0.8% |
0.4% |
0.5% |
0.2% |
|
Minneapolis |
1.1% |
0.3% |
1.8% |
0.0% |
|
New York |
0.0% |
-0.3% |
-0.1% |
-0.5% |
|
Phoenix |
1.1% |
0.8% |
0.8% |
0.5% |
|
Portland |
1.2% |
0.4% |
1.1% |
0.2% |
|
San Diego |
0.6% |
0.3% |
0.9% |
0.6% |
|
San Francisco |
1.1% |
0.5% |
1.0% |
-0.3% |
|
Seattle |
2.2% |
1.4% |
2.7% |
1.1% |
|
Tampa |
0.5% |
0.1% |
0.4% |
0.2% |
|
Washington |
0.6% |
0.0% |
1.1% |
-0.1% |
|
Composite-10 |
0.5% |
0.1% |
0.7% |
0.1% |
|
Composite-20 |
0.7% |
0.2% |
0.9% |
0.2% |
|
U.S. National |
1.1% |
0.4% |
1.0% |
0.3% |
|
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic |
|
| ||
|
Data through May 2018 |
|
|
| |
For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit www.spdji.com.
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S&P Dow Jones Indices is the largest global resource for essential index-based concepts, data and research, and home to iconic financial market indicators, such as the S&P 500® and the Dow Jones Industrial Average®. More assets are invested in products based on our indices than products based on indices from any other provider in the world. Since Charles Dow invented the first index in 1884, S&P DJI has become home to over 1,000,000 indices across the spectrum of asset classes that have helped define the way investors measure and trade the markets.
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FOR MORE INFORMATION:
David Blitzer
Managing Director and Chairman of Index Committee
New York, USA
(+1) 212 438 3907
david.blitzer@spglobal.com
Soogyung Jordan
Global Head of Communications
New York, USA
(+1) 212 438 2297
soogyung.jordan@spglobal.com
Luke Shane
North America Communications
New York, USA
(+1) 212 438 8184
luke.shane@spglobal.com
S&P Dow Jones Indices' interactive blog, HousingViews.com, delivers real-time commentary and analysis from industry experts across S&P Global on a wide-range of topics impacting residential home prices, homebuilding and mortgage financing in the United States. Readers and viewers can visit the blog at www.housingviews.com, where feedback and commentary is welcomed and encouraged.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are published on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated quarterly. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 10 original metro area indices. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000; thus, for example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the subject market.
These indices are generated and published under agreements between S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic, Inc.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are produced by CoreLogic, Inc. In addition to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, CoreLogic also offers home price index sets covering thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets. The indices, published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, represent just a small subset of the broader data available through CoreLogic.
Case-Shiller® and CoreLogic® are trademarks of CoreLogic Case-Shiller, LLC or its affiliates or subsidiaries ("CoreLogic") and have been licensed for use by S&P Dow Jones Indices. None of the financial products based on indices produced by CoreLogic or its predecessors in interest are sponsored, sold, or promoted by CoreLogic, and neither CoreLogic nor any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, or predecessors in interest makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products.
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