Axon reports Q1 2024 revenue of $461 million, up 34% year over year, raises outlook

2024 Outlook          

The following forward-looking statements reflect Axon's expectations as of May 6, 2024, and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to "Forward-looking Statements" below for more information.

  • Axon expects full year 2024 revenue of $1.94 billion to $1.99 billion, representing approximately 26% annual growth at the midpoint. This is an increase from our prior revenue guidance range of $1.88 billion to $1.94 billion.
  • Axon expects full year 2024 Adjusted EBITDA dollars of $430 million to $445 million, implying Adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 22%. This is an increase from our prior Adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $410 million to $430 million.
    • We provide Adjusted EBITDA guidance, rather than net income guidance, due to the inherent difficulty of forecasting certain types of expenses and gains such as stock-based compensation, income tax expenses and gains or losses on marketable securities and strategic investments, which affect net income but not Adjusted EBITDA. We are unable to reasonably estimate the impact of such expenses, which could be material, on net income. Accordingly, we do not provide a reconciliation of projected net income to projected Adjusted EBITDA.
  • We expect stock-based compensation expenses to be approximately $215 million to $230 million for the full year.
    • Full year expected stock-based compensation expense includes approximately $43 million in expenses related to a one-time enhanced equity compensation program provided to employees whose compensation is under a specified threshold. We expect this expense to be primarily reflected within COGS. Approximately $30 million in stock-based expense related to this compensation opportunity was recognized in the first quarter, in-line with vesting schedules.
    • Because our stock-based compensation expenses may vary based on changes in our stock price or the actual timing of attainment of certain metrics, it is inherently difficult to forecast future stock-based compensation expense, which may also be materially affected by any future stock-based compensation plans, subject to shareholder approval.
  • We expect 2024 CapEx to be in the range of $80 million to $95 million, up from $60 million to $75 million previously. The increase in our CapEx expectations is primarily a result of accelerated capacity expansion investments to meet higher demand for TASER 10. Our 2024 CapEx plans include investments in TASER 10 automation and capacity expansion, including cartridge capacity and lab enhancements and global facility build-out and upgrades, such as warehousing support for global shipping facilities.

Quarterly conference call and webcast
We will host our Q1 2024 earnings conference call webinar on Monday, May 6th, 2 p.m. PT / 5 p.m. ET.

The webcast will be available via a link on Axon's investor relations website at  https://investor.axon.com, or can be accessed directly via https://axon.zoom.us/j/91234146923

Statistical Definitions
Annual recurring revenue: Annual recurring revenue is a performance indicator that management believes provides more visibility into the growth of our revenue generated by our highest margin, recurring services. Annual recurring revenue should be viewed independently of revenue and deferred revenue because it is an operating measure and is not intended to be combined with or to replace GAAP revenue or deferred revenue, as they can be impacted by contract start and end dates and renewal rates. Annual recurring revenue is not intended to be a replacement or forecast of revenue or deferred revenue. We calculate annual recurring revenue as monthly recurring license, integration, warranty, and storage revenue, annualized. As of the first quarter of 2024, in order to comprehensively cover recurring warranty revenue, we have recast our annual recurring revenue figures to include recurring TASER segment warranty revenue, in addition to the existing inclusion of recurring warranty revenue from our Software & Sensors segment.

Net revenue retention: Dollar-based net revenue retention is an important metric to measure our ability to retain and expand our relationships with existing customers. We calculate it as the software and camera warranty subscription and support revenue from a base set of agency customers from which we generated Axon Cloud subscription revenue in the last month of a quarter divided by the software and camera warranty subscription and support revenue from the year-ago month of that same customer base. This calculation includes high-margin warranty revenue but purposely excludes the lower-margin hardware subscription component of the customer contracts, as it is meant to be a SaaS metric that we use to monitor the health of the recurring revenue business we are building. This calculation also excludes the implied monthly revenue contribution of customers that were added since the year-ago quarter, and therefore excludes the benefit of new customer acquisition. The metric includes customers, if any, that terminated during the annual period, and therefore, this metric is inclusive of customer churn. This metric is downwardly adjusted to account for the effect of phased deployments—meaning that, for the year-ago period, we consider the total contractually obligated implied monthly revenue amount, rather than monthly revenue amounts that might have been in actuality smaller on a GAAP basis due to the customer not having yet fully deployed their Axon solution. For more information relative to our revenue recognition policies, please reference our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC").

Total company future contracted revenue: Total company future contracted revenue represents remaining performance obligations and includes both recognized contract liabilities as well as amounts that will be invoiced and recognized in future periods. The remaining performance obligations are limited only to arrangements that meet the definition of a contract under Accounting Standards Codification Topic 606 as of March 31, 2024. We currently expect to recognize between 15% to 25% of this balance over the next 12 months, and generally expect the remainder to be recognized over the following ten years, subject to risks related to delayed deployments, budget appropriation or other contract cancellation clauses.

Non-GAAP Measures
To supplement the Company's financial results presented in accordance with GAAP, we present the non-GAAP financial measures of EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA Margin, Adjusted Gross Margin, Non-GAAP Net Income, Non-GAAP Diluted Earnings Per Share, Free Cash Flow, and Adjusted Free Cash Flow. The Company's management uses these non-GAAP financial measures in evaluating the Company's performance in comparison to prior periods. We believe that both management and investors benefit from referring to these non-GAAP financial measures in assessing its performance, and when planning and forecasting our future periods. A reconciliation of GAAP to the non-GAAP financial measures is presented below.

  • EBITDA (Most comparable GAAP Measure: Net income) - Earnings before interest expense, investment interest income, income taxes, depreciation and amortization.
  • Adjusted EBITDA (Most comparable GAAP Measure: Net income) - Earnings before interest expense, investment interest income, income taxes, depreciation, amortization, non-cash stock-based compensation expense, fair value adjustments to strategic investments and marketable securities, transaction costs related to acquisitions and strategic investments, and other unusual, non-recurring pre-tax items that are not considered representative of our underlying operating performance (identified and listed below in the reconciliation).
  • Adjusted EBITDA Margin (Most comparable GAAP Measure: Net income margin) – Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of net sales.
  • Adjusted Gross Margin (Most comparable GAAP Measure: Gross Margin) – Gross Margin before non-cash stock-based compensation expense and amortization of acquired intangible assets.
  • Non-GAAP Net Income (Most comparable GAAP Measure: Net income) - Net income excluding the costs of non-cash stock-based compensation, gain/loss/write-down/disposal/abandonment of property, equipment and intangible assets; fair value adjustments to strategic investments and marketable securities; transaction costs related to acquisitions and strategic investments; costs related to the Federal Trade Commission ("FTC") litigation and antitrust litigation and other unusual, non-recurring pre-tax items that are not considered representative of our underlying operating performance (listed below). The Company tax-effects non-GAAP adjustments using the blended statutory federal and state tax rates for each period presented.
  • Non-GAAP Diluted Earnings Per Share (Most comparable GAAP Measure: Earnings Per share) - Measure of Company's Non-GAAP Net Income divided by the weighted average number of diluted common shares outstanding during the period presented.
  • Free Cash Flow (Most comparable GAAP Measure: Cash flow from operating activities) - Cash flows provided by operating activities minus purchases of property and equipment and intangible assets.
  • Adjusted Free Cash Flow (Most comparable GAAP Measure: Cash flow from operating activities) - Cash flows provided by operating activities minus purchases of property and equipment and intangible assets, excluding the net impact of investments in our new Scottsdale, Arizona campus and bond premium amortization.
    • We believe that free cash flow and adjusted free cash flow excluding the impact of bond premium amortization and net campus investment are non-GAAP measures that are useful to investors and management to evaluate the Company's ability to generate cash. These non-GAAP measures can also be used to evaluate the Company's ability to generate cash flow from operations and the impact that this cash flow has on the Company's liquidity.

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